 Joern Higgen SVP Market Analytics Uniper, Germany |  Ricardo Covas Quantitative Analysis EDP, Portugal |  Flavio Russo Head of Modeling and Analytics Enel, Italy |
|---|---|---|
 Tracey Walker Head of UK Market Fundamentals National Grid, UK |  Matthias Klapper Senior Market Analyst Vattenfall, Germany |  Aurel Mindrican Director of Trading and Market Statistics ČEZ Group, Romania |
 Jan Gibbert Regulatory Manager Centrica, UK |  Ivan Androcec Director of Strategy and Development Department HEP d.d., Croatia |  Jussi Mäkelä Head of Trading Analysis Fortum, Finland |
 Dr. Johannes Henkel Head of Energy Market Development 50Hertz, Germany |  David Assaad Head of European Market Integration and Coupling Epex Spot, France |  Clara Verhelst Advisor CREG, Belgium |
 Catalin Chimirel Manager for Energy Efficiency and New Technologies CNTEE Transelectrica, Romania |  Georges Panaghoulis Head of Price Risk and Hedging Island Oil Ltd, UK |  Rafael Gómez-Elvira Director Public Affairs Marketing/Chairman OMI Group, Spain |
 Carmela Milluzzo Head of Short Term Analysis ERG SpA, Italy |  Derek Bunn Professor of Decision Sciences, Management Science and Operations London Business School, UK |  Wennerström Stefan Vice President Esem, Sweden |
 Dr. Andreas Kindsmüller Manager Control Reserves and Balancing Amprion GmbH, Germany |  Jerome le Page Manager for European Electricity Markets EFET, Belgium |
Agenda
27-28-29 November 2023
09:00
Meet & Greet
10:40
Coffee Break
13:00
Lunch
14:00
Networking
16:00
Q & A Session
3
24
100+
DAY
SPEAKERS
PARTICIPANTS
INTRODUCTION
Energy price forecasting (EPF) is the process of using mathematical models to predict what
electricity prices will be in the future. EPF is an extremely important factor in the utilities’ decision
making process.
There is short-, medium- and long-term forecasting.
• Short-term forecasting, generally involves horizon from a few minutes up to a few days
ahead and is of prime importance in day-to-day market operations.
• Medium-term forecasting, from a few days to a few months ahead, is generally preferred for
balance sheet calculations, risk management and derivatives pricing.
• Long-term forecasting, with lead times measures in months, quarters or years,
concentrates on investment profitability analysis and planning.
Short industry description and background to the topic
Electricity (energy commodity) is traded on the wholesale market. Suppliers (electricity
generators) and demanders (retailers) are active on the wholesale electricity market. They meet on
the power exchange. Electricity generators disclose the amount of power they are willing to sell for
a given price and demanders disclose the amount of power they are prepared to buy for a given
price. As electricity cannot be stored economically, the electricity market has a highly volatile
character. That is why electricity price forecasting has to be based on reliable models that take
into account all major factors affecting the price.
Glossary
Wholesale Market: Electricity (energy commodity) is traded on the wholesale market. Suppliers
(electricity generators) and demanders (retailers) are active on the wholesale electricity market.
Retail Market: Retailers purchase significant volumes of electricity in the wholesale market and
sell packages of smaller volumes to its customers.
A spot price is the current price in the marketplace at which a given asset such as a security,
commodity or currency can be bought or sold for immediate delivery.
A forward price is the predetermined delivery price for an asset decided upon by the long (the
buyer) and the short (the seller) to be paid at predetermined date in the future.
Price volatility
Liquidity
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